NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview - Noah Weber's Blog

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Noah Weber's Blog

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview Stuck

Posted on May 27, 2012 at 12:00 PM.

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With last night�s 85-75 win over the Philadelphia 76ers, the Boston Celtics are set to meet the Miami Heat in the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. The series will be a rematch of last year�s Eastern Conference Semifinals, in which Miami toppled Boston in a mere 5 games. Will history repeat itself when the two teams square off this year, or will Boston�s age and experience allow them to overcome Miami�s physical freakishness? Below are some important questions to consider heading in to the series, complete with my prediction as to how it will all turn out:

1. How much will age, rest, and injuries factor into the series?

Boston is off to an immediate disadvantage, being forced to play on the road to start the series after just one day�s rest. The Heat, on the other hand, have had four days to rest up since beating Indiana in their Semifinal matchup. I believe this will make it very hard for Boston to steal Game 1, and will likely give Miami a head start heading into the rest of the series.

Age is another important factor, with Boston being significantly older and creakier than Miami. Although the likes of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett have been known to elevate their games come crunch time, one has to wonder how many more surges those two have left in their bodies. Miami, meanwhile, sports some of the most physically primed athletes ever assembled on one team, and will likely look to exploit their youth and vigor to overwhelm the ancient Celtic squad.

Lastly, a lot of this series could come down to which team stays healthy. Both Miami and Boston have battled injury concerns this season, so keeping their players in top shape could be a major factor in determining which team advances to the Finals.

2. Who can control the tempo?

Boston is a savvy and meticulous half-court team. Miami thrives on an explosive fastbreak. Whichever squad is able to control the pace of the game will have a huge advantage on the court.

Tempo is often dictated by defense, and both teams have exceptional defensive resumes. If Miami can use their length and athleticism to force turnovers and acquire easy fastbreak points, Boston will have their hands full trying to keep up. On the other hand, if Boston slows Miami down and forces them to move the ball around to look for points, the Celtics could take Miami out of their comfort zone and force them to make some critical mistakes.

One x-factor with regards to tempo is the distinct advantage the Celtics have at the point guard position. Rajon Rondo has continued to blossom into one of the best point men in the league, and his triple-double in Game 7 against Philadelphia was no exception. If Rondo can become a major factor in games, and is able to dictate the pace of the game for his team, Boston will have a chance to make Miami uncomfortable, and possibly steal a game or two from them at home.

3. Will Miami beat itself?

I am one of those people who believes that the Heat really should never lose. Their combination of size, athleticism, and skill is almost terrifying, and when they are firing on all cylinders they appear unstoppable. Somehow, however, the Heat manage to find ways to completely underachieve, and that could be the one thing that does them in against Boston in this series.

As long as Miami stays healthy, avoids mental errors, and operates efficiently in crunch-time, I believe they will win this series handily. That means no Udonis Haslem meltdowns, no LeBron media fiascoes (like mocking Dirk Nowitzki�s cough in the finals last year), and no D-Wade/Erik Spoelstra fights. They also must protect the ball at all times, and have a clear game plan as to who takes the final shots. If Miami stays clean on the mental side of the game, their physical advantage will take care of ensuring on-court success.

PREDICTION:

If any of you read my UFC 146 prediction in which I went three-for-three on predicting the outcomes of last night�s fights, you will know I am on a roll. Here�s hoping that momentum continues as I lock in the following official prediction:

Miami finally becomes the Heat team we�ve all been waiting for and runs all over the Celtics. Boston manages to steal two games on the merits of their veteran craftiness, but the series never really feels close.

MIAMI IN SIX.

That�s my take on the 2012 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Who do YOU think will win? Miami or Boston?

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Noah Weber is a regular sports blog contributor to Operation Sports. Catch his posts on operationsports.com, or follow him on Twitter @gobluenoah.

Comments

# 1 Blak_Baki_Hanma @ May 27

Miami still has no answer for elite point guards and dominant bigs. If DWade doesn't cripple Rondo like he did last year, Boston's superior scheme (credit Doc Rivers) and excellent team defense can put the kibosh on Miami's title hopes for another year... which is all a Clevelander like myself can hope for.

# 2 authentic @ May 27

I wouldn't say Miami is healthy. Wade getting his knees drained and Bosh with his injury doesn't exactly equate into a healthy squad. If Bosh doesn't play, I think this series goes to 7 games. If Bosh eventually plays, I think the Heat win in 5 or maybe 6.

# 3 Noah Weber @ May 28

I appreciate the comments, gentlemen. For the record, I never said Miami was healthy. I said both teams have battled injuries, and whichever team stays healthiest has the best chance of winning. Should be an interesting series.

# 4 clivo1050 @ May 28

I think this is gonna be a much closer series than most people think. The Heat have no low post scorers with Bosh out. If the Celtics can contain Lebron/Wade and force a half court game, its gonna be very close.

# 5 authentic @ May 28

My bad, I just got caught up in the Celtics are old and posted. I don't think age will matter in this series. The Celtics can win, and they know that. Miami has pressure to win, and they know that. The Celtics can play loose and relaxed Playoff basketball, Miami sometimes defeats themselves. However, the key player in this series is Dwayne Wade. If Wade doesn't play good and Bosh doesn't play, Miami might lose in 5 or 6. I'm pulling for the Celts. I'd like to see them get one more shot.

# 6 Noah Weber @ May 29

I agree with you, authentic. I thought Miami really stepped up the intensity to get that win last night, but I agree that if either team has an "off" night, Boston will be better equipped to handle it. That's why I think the Celtics steal a game or two, simply because Miami will mail at least one of these games in and Boston's experience will allow them to rise above it and get the win. Could be a great series.